#PotatoFoolsDay ARG

[Will T.]

All the time predictions are moving to later. I figured out why too. Read on to see...

(For the following, please assume that all times are in PDT.)

It has now been over 60 hours since the CPU recruitment program started. We are about to hit 75%. Assuming we hit 75% at about 9:45, and assuming that movement continues at the current average overall rate, the final 25% will take just over 20 hours, putting completion time at approximately 6:00 PM tomorrow (Monday).

Unfortunately, you may have noticed a pattern here:

At 50% completion (11:00 PM Saturday), I predicted 5:00 AM Monday.
At 66.67% (1:45 PM Sunday), I predicted 3:45 PM Monday.
Now, at 75% (9:30 PM Sunday), I predict approximately 6:00 PM Monday.

Either my math is way off, or we've been steadily slowing down...! I'll skip all the number details for now, but I figured out that if the current trends continue, the "projected launch" will be here long before all the bars are filled. On the upside, the more bars we fill, the sooner the projected launch becomes, so if we fill some more we might still manage to get it to before Midnight tomorrow night thanks to that...

Also, An email from Jeep Barnett at Valve suggests that getting a certain number of potatoes will speed up the entire process. What is this number? Nobody knows, but it hasn't been reached yet, apparently. My hope is 500,000 because it's a nice round number, and we're getting close. How much will it increase the speed? Again, nobody knows. But any speed increase would help right now.

EDIT: It is now 10:00 PM and we still have not quite hit 75% yet. On day 1 we were moving at well over 1% per hour. Today, we are under 1% per hour. We are definitely slowing down, and we will definitely not finish before the projected launch time, barring some sort of speed-enhancing intervention by Valve.
This does NOT mean we should give up though. If we continue to complete what games we still can, we will bring the launch timer earlier, and still possibly end up with a release at a potentially playable hour tomorrow night.

[Boss Llama]

One of the reasons for the slowdown, I'm guessing, is the realization that no matter what we did, nothing was going to get the game released over the weekend. There was huge interest and participation early on, but as it became readily apparent that there was no way to accelerate the bars fast enough, people lost interest. For many folks, the difference between a Monday release and a Tuesday release is approximately zilch, whereas the difference between a Sunday release and a Monday one would be huge.

I've been anticipating a Tuesday release all along, so no skin off my teeth, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are some slightly bitter people after this, who got their hopes up for this weekend, and had them dashed when they realized there wasn't a chance in heck of getting what they feel they were led to expect. Of course, if the game is sufficiently good, they'll get over it soon enough.

In addition to that, a certain number of people will be playing some of the games, without consciously being a part of the ARG effort. They aren't switching games when calculations are complete on their game of choice, so their unintentional contributions slow down as more and more games are completed. We're now done with a hair over half the games, so the playtime of several thousand people no longer counts.

[Will T.]

That makes sense.

Personally I was never expecting a Friday or Saturday release, but on Friday I was hoping for a slim chance of a Sunday one, and through today I've been hoping for tomorrow, but now that that doesn't look likely I guess it's Tuesday. I'm fine with it coming out whenever, but Tuesday is one of my super-busy days at school, so I won't get as much time with it. I can always set my alarm a little early and play for 3 hours before class though.

The real reason I wanted tomorrow is that my friend and I were gonna have a little get-together and start our co-op run, since we each don't have much going on on Mondays. We can just do co-op online without the meet-up, so it's alright, just no "bonus" of getting together to start it for the first time in person.

[Boss Llama]

Might still get some time on Monday night - just not as much as originally intended We'll see what Valve has in store for us!

[Flash]

Portal 2 ARG Not Yet Over: Cryptic File Hints at HL2: Ep 3
http://games.on.net/article/12244/Porta ... t_HL2_Ep_3




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[Will T.]

Valve's given official word that anything outside of the GLaDOS@Home site right now is irrelevant to the ARG, presumably including the Steamcast message. The Borealis stuff is likely just another nod to Half-Life for the pure fun of having one, but the conspiracy theorists will of course tell you otherwise.

They've been so adamant that Portal 2 is its own game and not a Half-Life spin-off throughout the whole pre-launch period, I'd be really surprised if they actually made any HL-related announcements. But you never know...

[Flash]

Maybe not so clear cut after all, this news item from yesterday at 2:51, less then an hour after the email you linked:

Jeep Barnett has apparently been taken over by GLaDOS. Maybe we should cautiously disregard Jeep's prior statement that anything other than GLaDOS@HOME is irrelevant to the ARG, or take into account that his GLaDOS-like behavior could be him trolling based on him just saying that GLaDOS@HOME is all that is relevant.

They've been so adamant that Portal 2 is its own game and not a Half-Life spin-off throughout the whole pre-launch period, I'd be really surprised if they actually made any HL-related announcements. But you never know...

I don't think I'd call it a "spin off" but clearly the two stories are meant to take place in the same world. Wether the two story lines will ever intertwine in a more meaningful way is yet to be seen.


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[TheCarpe]

Indeed. There has been more than one hint about Ep3. There was one user who sent coded messages that, when decrypted, seemed to know an awful lot about what is going on. This person also added strange emphasis to the word "time" and finished his last transmission with "For now, this is where I get off"

Sound like anyone you know?

[Buzzy Beetle]

Indeed. There has been more than one hint about Ep3. There was one user who sent coded messages that, when decrypted, seemed to know an awful lot about what is going on. This person also added strange emphasis to the word "time" and finished his last transmission with "For now, this is where I get off"

Sound like anyone you know?

Provided it really is him... which would be so insanely awesome... I personally sh- er, crapped bricks when i saw it.

[Will T.]

Someone once said something about finding GMan's briefcase texture files in the preload data ... could very well have been a troll though, there have been more of those than truthful folks in this entire thing.
If there's HL news, I'll be excited, but if not, I won't be disappointed. After all ... Portal 2!!


Apparently the meters on GLaDOS@Home may have sped up at some point in the night. Nobody can confirm this for sure, but people did notice that Killing Floor has seemed to move much faster than it has been moving. If KF creeps along 1% more, that will leave Amnesia: the Dark Descent as the only game under half-done, and even then it's well over 40%. Audiosurf should complete soon-ish, and The Ball might be done this afternoon/evening (or earlier? I'm not great at predicting how long the individual games take).

No matter what happens ... we are now less than 24 hours from release!

[Stevo]

I thought Portal took place on The Borealis. And Aperture and Black Mesa were competitors.

[Will T.]

AS and BM are definitely competitors, but Portal 1 didn't take place on the Borealis. For one thing, how could that facility fit inside of a ship? And aside from that, there is the end scene with the trees, parking lot, and guard booth; not exactly things you have on or immediately around an ice breaker.

Plus GLaDOS always, always calls it "the Enrichment Center," which doesn't sound like a seafaring vessel to me. Since 2 takes place in the same location as 1, I think it's safe to say that it's not on board the ship.

VIEW CONTENT:

There is also the achievement regarding "discovering the missing experiment," with a picture of an anchor and the title of "Ship Overboard," seeming to point to an easter egg scene regarding the ship.

[Boss Llama]

A countdown of some sort has begun - another new one.

On the GLaADOS@home page, the "auxilliary power" counter, aka the potato counter, is now in countdown, from the mid 400,000's. It's going about 11-12 per second, which gives around 10.5 hours of countdown, from the current position.

[TheCarpe]

A countdown of some sort has begun - another new one.

On the GLaADOS@home page, the "auxilliary power" counter, aka the potato counter, is now in countdown, from the mid 400,000's. It's going about 11-12 per second, which gives around 10.5 hours of countdown, from the current position.

The wiki has also noticed a spike in the amount of CPU power being pumped into each game, to the tune of about double. Looks like the potato overclocking has begun.

There are also now nine active test subjects.

[Will T.]

Apparently the nine active test subjects are the "kidnapped" people who worked on the ARG, according to a photo on the official Portal Facebook page.


In other news, Kotaku got an email from GLaDOS herself containing a hex-coded message that leads to a Facebook page. No idea what it means.

I'm hoping that the doubled CPU rate means we might get the game this evening. Even if we don't, there is still tomorrow, but it'd be really nice for the whole ARG to actually lead to something. As much fun as this last phase has been (for most ... I've seen plenty of people out there who need to grow up and learn to just play along [see: SPUF; the people who leave comments on any news article pertaining to Portal 2; just about anywhere that is NOT The Ville] ), it would be nice for it to actually yield a difference-making result. Which, if things are truly speeding up as they seem to be, it just might.