Villuns with Unusual Hats

[Kujako]

Given the cost of keys vs the cost of unusual hats on the market, it seems to me you're better off just buying the hat you want. Or am I missing something?

[Zork Nemesis]

Given the cost of keys vs the cost of unusual hats on the market, it seems to me you're better off just buying the hat you want. Or am I missing something?

If you take the unboxing route to get an Unusual, it could be cheaper if you get lucky.

If you're me, I have a total of three Unusuals. It took me over 3 years to unbox the first one and I had opened every single crate I picked up since they became a thing, even going as far to collect some for mass unboxings. This is why if you look at my backpack, I have tons upon tons of strange weapons and plain non-glowing hats. Every single weapon I use except the GRU, Sandvich, Machina, Classic, Big Kill, and Back Scatter is Strange in one way or another. It's safe to say that I have probably lost over a thousand bucks on keys alone.

Hat unusual values are all over the place. The general consensus is that if the hat looks good and the effect is highly visible, the price will be much higher than a crappy hat and/or a weak effect. Stuff like Sunbeams, Burning, Disco Fever, Miami Nights, etc will fetch high prices, while things like Flies, Circling TF/Heart, Nuts n' Bolts, etc won't unless they're paired with very specific hats (example, a Flies Handyman's Handle will likely be worth more than any other Flies hat). Specific hats also fetch high prices no matter the unusual, such as the Team Captain, Modest Pile/Towering Pillar of Hats, and other popular All-Class hats. It's also worth noting that Halloween and Robocrate effects are much more valuable due to their limited availability.

Going by the community market, this is what I could get for my three hats:
Bubbling Pugilist's Protector would get me close to $20
Smoking Cockswain's Pith Helmet fetches about $40
Miami Nights Das Ubersternman, $150 last I checked.

It could be cheaper, but if you just buy it, you'll get exactly what you want rather than relying on chance. While chance hats are cool in their own respect, there's so many combinations that you're very unlikely to get the exact hat you want with the correct effect. Otherwise, you're at the mercy of the random number gods for every $2.50 you spend.