What will the value of Tux be one year from now?

[black_and_blue]

Just thought it would be good to make our predictions!

Some notes on current item values according to tf2spreadsheet.blogspot.com:

Ellis' Cap is currently worth 1.33 refined metal
A key is currently worth 3.77 refined metal
A backpack expander is currently worth 2.5-3 keys
Bill's hat is currently worth 8-10 keys
Earbuds are currently worth 27-28 keys

[black_and_blue]

I voted for the 3-6 key range. It is a limited drop item, but there are plenty of other limited drop items that aren't terribly valuable, and I think the community has already decided what the high-value items will be.

[Zork Nemesis]

I don't think it will be nearly as valuable as Earbuds are, primarily due to the fact that most PCs can use Windows and Linux together, while it's understandably difficult to put Mac OS on a Windows machine (or more difficult at least). Plus we've also had a set date this time and thanks to Steam Market, it will probably be in circulation relatively quickly.

I don't think I know what i'm talking about.

[Flash]

I think the value will be rather limited long-term. As Zork mentioned, everyone who plays TF2 has a computer capable of running Linux, it is simply a mater of effort. Anyone who wants one is making the effort to get it and likewise I'm sure the traders/idlers are getting them on multiple accounts so I foresee the market being flooded with them very quickly.

[Earthworm James]

1 ref but under a key. One person with Linux can obtain many of these. People are on top of the TF2 market, where as when earbud promotion came, hardly anybody could predict they would be the premier currency, which is also what made them that way.

TF2 market is an interesting thing. Everything fluctuates, but one of the main factors is the amount of keys in circulation, and keys can be used on crates, which from my experience instantly deminishes the value of your backpack with few exceptions(mostly unusuals, crates #30 & 40). Even if you are the 1% who loots an unusual with a key, you're lucky to be the .1% who get something top tier.

[Boss Llama]

An additional factor that makes it difficult to judge is simply what the state of the TF2 market itself will be in a year. Two years ago, earbuds were 10 keys, and Bills were 4-5 keys. A year from now, they could be through the roof expensive, or they could be worthless because the economy crashes due to being unsustainable. I couldn't even make an educated guess at what earbud prices will be, much less a new trinket that from the get-go is designed to be overpriced. If you put a gun to my head and demanded I answer, I'd probably say "about whatever a Bill's Hat is worth."

[The Domer]

Less than a key.

[black_and_blue]

Wow, I want to know who said at least 27 keys.

[Peahats]

I think that since the tux is so similar to the earbuds in how it's acquired, people will purposely horde as many as possible, thinking that they are going to be worth as much as buds. Unfortunately, if everyone has multiple tuxes then the value will drop. Of course, this is all if the darn things even become tradable.

[Zork Nemesis]

Wow, I want to know who said at least 27 keys.

Doesn't that defeat the purpose of a secret ballot system?

[Inner]

Didn't the earbuds come out before the "TF2 Market" was more or less organized?

[Jesus_Faction]

yes, nothing can touch buds because buds were from a time before trading

[Earthworm James]

yes, nothing can touch buds because buds were from a time before trading

you can touch my buds. . .i mean. . .er...uh, oh wait, i has no buds!